‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Constricts India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.

As military actions on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are adopting solid fuels and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have dwindled with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the authorities maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and spokespersons say supplies are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being allocated for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.