Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
