Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Shift of Stance and Closed Debates
Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- First, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
- Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past
This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Danger & A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
