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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to take a resolute stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "serious ramifications" last August in case Putin persisted obstructing truce discussions, the former president eventually imposed considerable sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously affected Putin's capability to fund his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's plan would essentially reward Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in peril. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the initiative actually compromise that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, the former president seems to consider the war as a mere border issue, as if ceding Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will please the president. However, Putin's invasion is not simply about controlling a charred region of economically weakened territory in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear goal to destroy it so it no longer functions as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the responsible government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Surrenders

While keeping in status the currently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force the nation to give up all of Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been failed to capture in over a decade of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defenses critically compromised.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a key barrier to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, providing Putin a open path to Kyiv if he eventually decide to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a move that would enable additional fighting simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their present large number troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's plan imposes no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to characterize the nation's legitimate administration as radicals, Trump's proposal declares: "Any Nazi doctrine and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to highlight this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump sets no obligation that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding votes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent treaties in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied land in the region to Ukrainian control – how should the international community trust this commitment this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the initiative threatens a "strong joint defense action" if Russia restart its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the details vary from vague to concerning. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit member states from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the reassurance force, likely led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Russia from restoring his weakened troops, rearming, and reinvading.

International Reaction

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an assault threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. However in contrast to a strong national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the dedication of Western powers, like Trump, to respond through arms to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not